Let’s continue on with Kaiji, I need to see if they are going anywhere with this chinchillarin-chinchillarin game. I mean, I get it, Kaiji lost his battle, he has to face the consequences, he has to go through his pain in order to “get his groove back”. I just wish the pain were a little more interesting than “try to roll well, and not poorly”. Well, here is hoping they spice things up in the third episode of the second season of Kaiji.
…thirty minutes pass…
Sure, if you cheat, cheater. Rule of thumb - Kaiji's good luck comes because luck is a real thing that actually happens in the world of the show, whereas the badguys' luck comes because they cheat.
So it turns out I sort of kind of missed a trick with bankroll limitations. I should have noticed my confusion when he said the betting limit was 20000 Pelica. I was like, “isn’t that a third of his bankroll? how on earth is he going to cover that as dealer?” I, in my foolish optimism, assumed that a player would not be allowed to deal if he did not have enough bankroll to cover quintuple payouts of the maximum bet to every player. Of course I should have remembered that we live in a world of overdraft protection plans.
Still, from the swindler’s perspective, it’s not really a great trick. Ok, if he drives Kaiji bust, then he gets to lend to him at predatory rates. Let’s assume that the interest is pure profit, that he’s accepting no risk and the time value of money is nothing. In that case… both him and his compatriot have to win in order to knock him out. There’s a bit less than a 50% chance of that happening, because the chance of a draw is about 1 in 10 it looked like. So, they have maybe if they are lucky a one in five chance of making 45000 Pelica, or, in other words, they have an expected value of 9000 Pelica. Which isn’t nothing, but it’s the equivalent of nine surface dollars, and it works out to three days’ pay. Not even three days’ pay, because they get food and housing and clothing and national defense for free. It’s three days’ disposable income. And that’s assuming that there is no risk or time-value loss to lending, which surely there is! Not to mention the social cost of earning Kaiji’s enmity, although perhaps it is more of a social value of crushing Kaiji under the sole of his boot. It’s also assuming he’s not cheating at dice, which he of course is, see above. But then the great trick is the cheating at dice, not the bankroll-busting.
I dunno, I am interested in Kaiji for the games, not so much the Communist propaganda, I guess. This episode was all about how the workers needed to cast off their chains and overthrow their capitalist masters. The show was all “people who make money by lending money are bloodsucking leeches who are skimming off the top”. That is basically a direct quote from Kaiji when he found out about the foreman’s overdraft protection plan. I was going to argue that in real life the capitalists are not cheating at dice in order to specifically drive you bankrupt and profit on it, but I decided I would have too hard a time keeping a straight face. Well, keep fighting the good fight, Kaiji. The Internationale, I am told, unites the human race.